Holiday Import Peak Is Ending: What It Means for Ecommerce Brands

Ports & Freight

11-11-2026

Yes, the 2026 holiday import rush is winding down. The National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker, released November 9, projects that U.S. container imports will fall from a record-setting September to about 2.05 million TEU in November and 2.03 million TEU in December, with most holiday merchandise already in the country. For ecommerce brands, that means the window to land more holiday inventory by ocean is mostly closed, West Coast rail and truck backups may linger, and early 2027 import volumes are forecast to come in below last year.

What Did the November 2026 Port Tracker Report Say?

The Global Port Tracker, produced by NRF and Hackett Associates, measures loaded import containers at the major U.S. ports it covers. The headline from the November 9 release is that an unusually long peak season, which kept docks busy from spring into the fall, has started to taper. Here are the figures NRF published:

September 2026 (latest final month): 2.37 million TEU, up 3.4% from August and up 12.6% from September 2025. That was the busiest month of 2026 and the third-busiest month NRF has on record.
October 2026 (projected, not yet final): 2.26 million TEU, up 9.1% year over year.
November 2026 (forecast): 2.05 million TEU, up 1.2% year over year.
December 2026 (forecast): 2.03 million TEU, up 1.3% year over year.
Full year 2026 (forecast): about 26 million TEU, up 2% from 25.4 million TEU in 2025.

NRF's Jonathan Gold said volumes remain high even as the season eases, and that they have caused backups on the West Coast where containers wait to move onto rail. He also said most holiday merchandise has already arrived. Keep in mind that October is still a projection; the ports had not reported final October numbers when the forecast came out.

Why Was the 2026 Import Peak So Long?

According to Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates, tariffs have been the main driver of import timing for two years. Tariff increases in 2025 pulled shipments forward. When the Supreme Court struck down the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs at the start of 2026, that surge appeared to fade. Then new tariffs in the second quarter of 2026 set off another wave of imports that ran from May through mid-October, as importers tried to get goods in ahead of changes.

The result was a peak season that started months earlier than the traditional late-summer push. For brands that import, that meant competing for container space, chassis and warehouse dock time for much of the year, not just in August and September.

Are Los Angeles and Long Beach Still Congested?

The San Pedro Bay ports handled record volume this fall, and that showed up in how long cargo sat before moving inland. Supply Chain Dive reported on October 21, citing the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, that September dwell times rose at both ports:

Port of Los Angeles, September: 1.04 million TEU, the busiest month in the port's history.
Port of Long Beach, September: 997,177 TEU, also a record month for that port.
Local truck dwell time: 3.18 days in September, up from 2.95 days in August.
Rail dwell time: 7.19 days in September, up from 6.75 days in August.

Those dwell figures are from September, so they are a few weeks old. As volume eases in November and December, pressure should lighten, but NRF's November release still described West Coast backups for rail-bound cargo. Containers that are trucked directly from the ports to a local warehouse generally avoid the longer rail wait, which matters if your goods need to reach customers quickly.

There is also an unresolved labor issue. NRF noted that ILWU Local 26, which represents watchmen at LA and Long Beach container terminals, has worked under three short-term extensions with the Pacific Maritime Association, most recently through November 20. There is no long-term contract in place, so brands with containers arriving late in November should track that date.

What Does the Early 2027 Import Forecast Look Like?

NRF's forecast points to softer volume after the holidays, compared with the very strong start to 2026:

January 2027: 2.04 million TEU, down 3% year over year.
February 2027: 1.89 million TEU, down 0.5% year over year.
March 2027: 1.92 million TEU, down 11.2% year over year.

Lower forecast volume does not guarantee lower freight costs or faster transit, since rates and capacity depend on carrier decisions and on tariff policy, which has changed several times this year. But a quieter first quarter can be a good time to restock, reset inventory positions and plan the next import cycle without fighting peak-season congestion.

What Should Ecommerce Brands Do Now?

Count on what is already landed. With most holiday goods in the country, plan December promotions around inventory you have or that is already on the water, not new ocean orders.
Clear containers fast. If you still have containers arriving, arrange drayage and receiving ahead of time so boxes do not sit at the terminal or rail yard during the busiest selling weeks.
Position stock close to the port. Receiving at a warehouse near LA and Long Beach cuts the time between vessel discharge and sellable inventory, and skips the inland rail leg for goods sold from the West Coast.
Watch November 20. Follow updates on the port watchmen contract extension if you have cargo due that week.
Plan Q1 replenishment early. Use the forecast lull to place spring orders and set reorder points before Lunar New Year factory closures affect supply.

If you sell on several channels, consolidating port-to-warehouse inventory in one place also makes it easier to keep stock levels in sync across your storefronts. See how a DTC fulfillment setup can connect landed inventory to your online orders.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many containers does NRF expect U.S. ports to import in November 2026?

NRF's Global Port Tracker forecasts about 2.05 million TEU of loaded imports in November 2026, up 1.2% from November 2025 but well below September's 2.37 million TEU.

Is it too late to import more holiday inventory by ocean?

For most brands, yes. NRF says most holiday merchandise is already in the country. Goods shipping from Asia now would likely land too late for the main holiday selling period, so faster options or existing stock are usually the better plan.

Why were port dwell times higher this fall?

Record September volume at Los Angeles and Long Beach meant more containers waiting for trucks and trains. PMSA data cited by Supply Chain Dive showed rail dwell rising to 7.19 days and truck dwell to 3.18 days in September.

Will imports drop in early 2027?

NRF forecasts year-over-year declines for January, February and March 2027, including an 11.2% drop in March. Tariff changes could shift that outlook, so treat it as a forecast, not a certainty.

How 3PL City Helps

3PL City runs a Los Angeles fulfillment warehouse in Gardena, CA, about 10 miles from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, so imported inventory can be received and made sellable quickly. Orders placed by 2 PM Pacific ship the same day, with 99.8% order accuracy and discounted carrier rates. Every client gets a dedicated account manager who responds within 1 hour during business hours. Onboarding takes 24 hours, with no long-term contracts, no order minimums and a $0 setup fee. We connect with Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, WooCommerce, BigCommerce and more integrations. Ready to plan your 2027 inventory? Get a fulfillment quote.